EM – ATP Cincinnati Day Five Tips: Big names are big favorites with market precision

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Today we have ATP action in the third round at the Cincinnati Masters with 16 players battling to make it to the quarterfinals tomorrow to achieve. Dan Weston discusses the day ahead …

“In fact, the Frenchman’s serve numbers have been very poor since the tour resumed – he only holds barely 70% of the service games – and this could be a real problem against a big server like Isner that will hold steady. “

The action in Cincinnati kicks off on Thursday at 4pm UK time with most of the big names – including Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev – in action after making the second round yesterday . However, we lost Andy Murray, who couldn’t beat Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets – he was a big underdog before the game so it wasn’t a big surprise.

This trio – Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev – are the three today strong favorites ahead of the game against Grigor Dimitrov, Lorenzo Sonego and Guido Pella, and all are between the 1,101 / 10 and 1,201 / 5 mark to make tomorrow’s quarter.

A theme of correct pricing runs throughout the map today – there isn’t much of pre-game value as the market today looks like it got it right. There’s not even much value in the side markets as John Isner versus Benoit Paire is a match with quite a different dynamic – Isner’s big serve versus Pairs inconsistency.

In fact, the Frenchman’s serve numbers have been very poor since the tour resumed – he can take just under 70% of the serving games – and this could be a real problem against a big server like Isner, which should be able to keep up keep. The result of this is that my model suggests that the chance of a tie-break in the first set is less than 25%, which is possibly less than many people would expect.

This is a similar chance of a tie-break in the first Sentence like the duel between Sonego and Tsitsipas and also the meeting between Matteo Berrettini and Felix Auger-Aliassime, which looks like one of the games of the day. Berrettini is the favorite at 1.625 / 8 for the game, which looks a bit short but is still higher than the starting price of 1.351 / 3 for their previous meeting at Wimbledon about six weeks ago.

In other games, Andrey Rublev is a solid favorite with 1.402 / 5 against Gael Monfils, while Hurbert Hurkacz is 1.9110 / 11 against Pablo Carreno-Busta. Hurkacz, who beat Andy Murray yesterday, appears to be an easy favorite for the game as it is likely to be played under relatively fast conditions.

Finally, Casper Ruud is a marginal favorite for his clash with Diego with a similar 1,845 / 6 Schwartzman, who appears to be the most return-oriented game on the board today. I’m making the match pretty even, so Ruud looks a bit short, but not very.

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