EM – Brisbane Heat vs Melbourne Stars Big Bash Tips: Sixes line is too high by Gabba standards

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In a preview of tomorrow’s game from The Gabba, Paul Krishnamurty selects a number of bets from the secondary markets and also a trade to tasty Odds for the title from …

The mood at T20 cricket betting is extremely fickle. Melbourne Stars went about 1.75 / 7 away for their previous game against a team with single-digit odds for the title. Today they are only marginal favorites to win away at Brisbane Heat, compared to 40.039 / 1 for the title before winning their last game and still have a dismal 25.024 / 1.

The same may apply to individual players. Joe Clarke had a 25/1 chance of becoming Man of the Match before the Stars lost. It didn’t land, but after finishing as the top scorer, she’s now back in 10/1. The lesson is clearly not to overreact to short-term bad times.

Stars are now bottom of the table, just ahead of their city rivals and the eternal fighters Renegades. Nevertheless, they remain a team to be reckoned with. Four of their five games were against the two best, Scorchers and Sixers, and their clout is stacked with international class and power.

Still, the match odds make little sense compared to the outright bets. Brisbane is one point ahead of them but is 25,024 / 1 for the title compared to 9.08 / 1 for stars. Based on this assessment, should you surely be greater than 2,111 / 10 to win this game? So what’s right and what’s wrong?

I tend to believe that Heat represents some commercial value for the title. They are in a better position than they were at this point last year when they only had one win behind the final.

Also, I would argue that they are much stronger. Chris Lynn missed a crucial part of his last term in office. Ben Duckett has strengthened the top order a lot. Mitch Swepson is back, and with it last season’s bowling hero, Mark Steketee, who missed the start. Marnus Labuschagne will be available for the play-offs.

Support her now at 25.024 / 1, cheer her on for the top five finish and then try to pay off with hopefully much lower odds.

In contrast, the game odds are likely fair. The heat reached 208 the last time Strikers were beaten up at the Adelaide Oval, and similar high scores are realistic at The Gabba. They conceded 196 against Thunder in the only game so far this season. With Tom Cooper, Jimmy Peirson, James Bazley, Jake Wildurmuth and Xavier Bartlett hitting from five to nine, they certainly have the depth to raise more big sums of money.

Of course, this also applies to stars like Andre Russell in fifth place. Just as Clarke’s contribution was overdue, so it is now Marcus Stoinis who has only managed 65 runs in four starts so far. He’s only 6/1 to be Man of the Match alongside Glenn Maxwell, followed by Lynn at 7/1. Overdue or not, that’s hard to justify.

Again, there is too much toss bias to play the match odds before the toss. 12 of the last 20 Big Bash matches at The Gabba (60%) went to the pursuit side. So let’s look at secondary markets.

First are OddsBoost batsmen Chris Lynn and Glenn Maxwell, who have been upgraded to 5/2 and 12/5 respectively. I prefer to look in order.

For Stars, 11/1 is generous over Andre Russell considering he beat five last time, and the top order wasn’t as reliable as their pedigree suggests leaves. He has already landed this market once in four starts this season.

The West Indian all-rounder is also appealing on September 22nd to be a top stars wicket taker. He won that market in their last game, bowling in the 19th round. He’ll likely throw one of the death trespasses again – best time to take wickets. Russell pulls a lot more attraction in these markets than a mere 8/1 for Man of the Match – which probably requires the stars to win the game.

I like a pair of Heat Batsmen for Top Match Batsman. Ben Duckett and Sam Heazlett were their best couple yet – the former scored twice the best goals and was man of the game last time, while the latter averaged 43.5. On that basis, 17/2 and 13/1 are making a lot of hits – compared to 7/2 and 9/2 for their side.

Finally, a bet on Total Sixes. Under 11.5 is available at Evens – this bet has won nine of the last 11 games at The Gabba.

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