Ed Hawkins finds a 16/5 value bet for the action in the Docklands Bash on Wednesday
“Opener Inglis got off to a surprisingly bad start. Could he get back on track here? He’s got two fifties in his four appearances against the Renegades. “
Renegades have three games in their campaign on familiar territory: they’re at the bottom. This is where they ended last season. And the season before that.
You haven’t played since December 13, a five-wicket loss to Brisbane. This gave them the opportunity to set a record of two losses and one win.
What will help is the return of Aaron Finch. It strengthens a weak line-up. Bowling is also questionable.
A front three from Kane Richardson, Reece Topley and Zahir Khan is decent, but they could get into trouble with the fifth and sixth options.
Scorchers played four and won four. It’s quite an effort considering they lost a number of players from last year to the finals.
Their key was Kurtis Patterson who was in great shape. In his most recent success, he fought against Hobart for half a century. That means Josh Inglis’s poor returns have gone unnoticed. Mitchell Marsh, Ashton Turner and Laurie Evans (in a new role) were solid in midfield.
With the ball, Tymal Mills was an excellent pick-up. And they have a plethora of bowling options, which means batters can have trouble settling.
The average total first innings in Docklands is 146. There is nothing to be alarmed about. Interestingly, Renegades lose almost 60% of home games if they beat first.
However, that was a trend they broke this season against Strikers when they defended 153.
If Renegades beat first, getting under the par line of inning runs should pay off. Perth is the meanest bowling unit to date, receiving an average of 6.8 runs per over. Renegades score only 6.3 at 6.5. Going under 145.5 is a bet.
Perth are 1,695 / 7 favorites for this with Renegades 2,305 / 4. We’re surprised that given the two teams’ respective records, Perth is no shorter. And not just this season. Perth have only lost three games to Renegades.
We have a rule not to play with numbers like this at Jollies, but at Perth we would be willing to make an exception. Better still, if Renegades can hit first and Finch flexes his muscles, why not place an order for 1,804 / 5 on the stock exchange?
Opener Inglis had a surprisingly bad start to the bash after Australia A. Could he get back on track here? He’s got two fifties in his four games against the Renegades.
Sports betting go 16/5 over him with the highest score for Perth. Paterson is 3/1 and Mitchell Marsh is 11/4. Turner is underestimated at the age of 12.
For Renegades, Finch returns with an increased 11/4 rate. But with such weak impact, it can be worth looking at larger numbers. Jake Fraser-McGurk catches the eye in 10 seconds.
With hitting likely to be close, the sub-six and foursome markets are remarkable. Supporting both at 10.5 and 24.5 at Evens and 5/6, respectively, is an option if those Renegades runs don’t fall short.
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2021: 40 2020: 5.91 2019: 37.25 points 2018: 23.53 points 2017: 12 points 2016: 18.1 points 2015: 38 points 2014: 31.5 Points 2013: 25 points Based on available prices only. Does not include back-to-lay-in running advice or commission rate. Numbers 2013-2016 on 1pt level assignments. Including Hawk-Eye column p-l
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