The Blundstone Arena is once again producing high totals in the first innings and Paul Krishnamurty says that both teams have the power in tomorrow Making game of hay …
Covid continues to affect sports schedule, potentially having a significant impact on Big Bash favorites Perth Scorchers. In the face of new restrictions, they will now play all of their games away from home. In this case the replay of the game from six days ago in the Blundstone Arena.
In truth, this cannot really be counted negatively as they easily beaten Hobart with 53 runs and have now won their last four games against these opponents . They are trying to keep a record of 100%, their pre-game odds are a prohibitive 1.674 / 6, despite a significant throwing error on this course. that their best players weren’t called up for Ashes duty. Mitchell Marsh’s undefeated tone at 60 balls must however increase his chances, while Marcus Harris’ vulnerability in the role of opener Josh Inglis could give one more chance. Losing those two would likely weigh more on their title hopes than losing their home advantage (whatever that is worth).
On the bowling front, Tymal Mills could prove to be the new signing of the season. His 3:23 on the debut was typical after some heavy death bowling efforts in the World Cup and The Hundred. If you keep fit, Mills is a great addition to scorchers.
However, be careful when considering these short pre-game odds today. Perth may be unbeaten yet, but runs like this rarely last in T20 cricket franchise. The fact that they hammered Hobart a few days ago is by no means a sign that they will do it again.
There is a lot to like about these opponents. Her high-ranking triumvirate D’Arcy Short, Matthew Wade and Ben McDermott oozes class. Joel Paris started well and improved an already strong and varied attack. Tim David did some great finishing work in various franchises in 2021. They’ll stay on my radar as the season progresses as a title contender.
Additionally, we have to consider the possibility that Perth had a big advantage in that final game. 11 of the last 13 games at Blundstone Arena went to the team that hit first.
One notable indication of in-running trading is that all of these 11 successful defenders finished over 170 in their first innings. The bottom two first innings were chased.
This is a relatively high score area, with above average totals and limits for the first innings. It is true that the results in the second inning rarely match the first, but I think the odds for “Both to Score” are generous.
From ‘Both to Score 170/180/190/200’ are the respective odds 4/1, 9/1, 19/1 and 40/1. That seems too big considering how likely the odds are in the second innings. For example, if Hobart hits 180, Perth would be nothing like 9/1 to chase it. More like 2/1.
Although this bet is recommended as a single bet for the purposes of the column, a nice alternative strategy is to try it as a back-to-lay, reconsidering the situation after the first innings or during the chase as soon as we know if the first 180 have landed.
While this goal is rare, it has won three of the last 27 games at Blundstone Arena, and I would argue that this is a better opportunity than most games land. Both Scorchers and Hurricanes have the power, especially upfront, to chase those sums of money.
For the top team runscorer, Mitchell Marsh’s two improved odds are 5/2 for Scorchers and Matthew Wade 3 / 1 for Hurricanes.
Given the expectation of high scores, I think batsmen will have an advantage in the man of the match market. 5/1 over Marsh reflects his chance. Ditto 7/1 about the hurricane pair D’Arcy Short and Matthew Wade.
Josh Inglis and Cameron Bancroft look better at the listed odds of 12/1 and 17/1. For Hobart, you also throw in Tim David at 20/1. All of them are likely to have a game-winning influence at some point, so I’ll happily accept the more generous odds now.
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