EM – Sydney Thunder v Melbourne Renegades Big Bash Tips: Thunder in a league of its own

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Before what appears to be a one-sided affair on paper, Paul Krishnamurty has a plan, Sydney Thunder to assist to inflated odds while…

It’s tempting to view the penultimate game of the group stage as a mismatch. A yawning 15 point gap separates Thunder and Renegades and there is a motivation gap. Thunder needs to win to advance into an all-important top 2 slot and could welcome back Ashes hero Usman Khawaja. All Renegades has to play for is not to finish bottom of the table for a third straight season.

The only snag is that just minutes ago Renegades almost had a wonderful victory chasing 183, also against a Team with more to play for. During the ongoing period, their odds against the Hobart Hurricanes dropped from 6.25/1 to 1.091/11, but their middle placement couldn’t finish the job after Aaron Finch and Shaun Marsh built a strong platform.

Same old problem. This was only the fourth time they had reached 130 in 13 games and only the second time they had reached 160. Equally costly on that occasion was her Death Bowling, conceding 62 runs in the last four overs. To make matters worse, Renegades have less than 24 hours to recover from this latest disappointment.

All of this is accurately reflected in the game odds, with Thunder starting at 1.511/2. We don’t offer pre-toss tips at such low odds on these sites, but finding holes in Thunder’s fall is difficult. They won the reverse game by a whopping 129 runs.

However, as today’s game showed, a lot can change in the run. Therefore, let’s try to get higher odds during the race by placing an order to support Thunder at 1.84/5. Additionally, focus on the ancillary markets.

The venue is the Melbourne Cricket Ground, where trends are very solid. I can report that the market for total sixes has improved – 29 of the last 36 games have yielded fewer than 11 sixes; 27 made fewer than ten. So the 8.5 line looks right, even accounting for Thunder’s explosive nature.

There seems to be a significant toss bias here. The last five games have gone to chasers, and in more than two-thirds of games historically. That might be a slight deterrent to the Thunder bet mentioned above, but I’m sticking with it as they are in a class of their own.

The last four first innings have all been under 150. In the last five games, all dated Chasers were won, an opening batsman hit the most in the second innings.

Bodes well for one of today’s #OddsBoost batsmen. Alex Hales didn’t hit 80 in Thunder’s comprehensive win over the Hurricanes here and the Englishman improved to 3/1 today. Given that these odds are a clear win over the long term, regardless of floor, Hales looks like good value for money.

Renegades’ improved option is Aaron Finch, who opened most of today’s match goals scored. However, given the quick turnaround, I wouldn’t be surprised if they experimented with their order, and Finch has downplayed order in other games.

A better option for them might be Shaun Marsh, maybe 10/3. He’s batted in the top 3 in each of his six innings, sometimes by a respectable 30 innings.

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