Infectious disease expert reveals when NSW may experience decline in Covid cases

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An infectious disease expert has revealed when NSW could finally experience a decline in Covid cases, and it could be very, very soon.

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SA, VIC and NSW remain in lockdown with a worrying spike in community infections in the Premier state….

COVID Australia latest: NSW records 'regarding' spike in community infections

SA, VIC and NSW remain in lockdown with a worrying spike in community infections in the Premier state.

Cases in NSW continue to rise. Image: NCA NewsWire / Adam YipSource: News Corp Australia

An infectious disease expert says NSW could experience a drop in Covid cases as early as this weekend.

dr. Sanjaya Senanayake told Sunrise that the tougher lockdown measures, such as the closure of non-essential stores introduced last weekend, could be reflected in the numbers from the end of the week.

If so, it will be a welcome relief to residents after the state registered 110 new cases on Thursday, 43 of which were contagious in the community.

The outbreak that began in Bondi on June 16 has also spread to regional parts of the state, with a confirmed infection in Orange.

« One thing that’s important to remember is that the new restrictions came into effect on Sunday, » said Dr. Senanayake.

People walk along the Cronulla Esplanade in the Sutherland Shire.  Image: NCA NewsWire / Adam Yip

People walk along the Cronulla promenade in the Sutherland Shire. Image: NCA NewsWire / Adam YipSource: News Corp Australia

“We remember that the virus has an incubation period of about five days on average, (although) it could be a bit longer, and people need to be tested and then we need to have the announcement at the press conference.

« We may even see the benefits of the new restrictions introduced this weekend at the end of this week and early next week. »

An epidemiologist on Wednesday reprimanded the NSW Prime Minister for rejecting a data model that predicted it could take until September for lockdown rules to quell the outbreak.

Modeling by the University of Melbourne’s Populations Intervention Unit predicted that it could take as long as 7½ weeks from July 18 when strict new lockdown rules were introduced to bring the number of infections in the community to acceptable levels.

That would mean that the lockdown would not end until the second week of September.

NSW registered 110 new cases on Wednesday.  Image: NCA Newswire/Gaye Gerard

NSW registered 110 new cases on Wednesday. Image: NCA Newswire/Gaye GerardSource: News Corp Australia

The researchers said they ran the numbers 10,000 times to account for the Delta strain’s high unpredictability and found that the median time it took from July 18 was 5.8 weeks, meaning the numbers would be down by 27. August would decrease.

The researchers set the benchmark for successfully suppressing the numbers at five daily cases, on a 14-day moving average.

When a reporter asked Gladys Berejiklian about modeling at Wednesday’s press conference, she was dismissive.

« We see versions of a lot of modeling, » she replied.

« Remember the models we got 18 months ago about the number of cases and deaths that would happen in Australia? That didn’t materialize. »

– additional reporting by Anton Nilsson

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